Navigating the fuel transition: a global perspective with lessons from China

Author- James Le, Marine Division Manager, Alfa Laval China

In China, things move at a pace that surprises even seasoned industry players. You can learn in five years here what might take a lifetime elsewhere.'' – James Le

The global maritime industry is in the midst of a profound transition. Every shipowner, shipyard and technology partner is confronted with the same set of uncertainties: Which alternative fuels will dominate? How will regulations evolve? Where should investments be made today to avoid stranded assets in 10 or more years' time?

What makes this landscape so complex is that answers vary across markets. Different geographies move at different speeds, influenced by regulations, customer demand and access to energy. Against this backdrop, China provides an especially telling case study – not because it defines the global picture but because it illustrates how unique market conditions can shape the path forward.

Global challenge with local variations

The decarbonization of shipping is a global undertaking, anchored in the 2050 IMO net-zero targets and strengthened by regional schemes such as the EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime. But the impact of these regulations differs depending on where and how vessels trade.

In many markets, owners are adopting a “wait and see” stance, unwilling to commit to one fuel pathway while technology and infrastructure remain in doubt. Others are moving more aggressively, whether through methanol dual-fuel newbuilds, ammonia-readiness or continued investments in LNG, widely seen as a cleaner bridging fuel.

What unites them all is the tension between short-term economics and long-term compliance. Energy-saving technologies typically come with clear payback times. Alternative fuels, by contrast, are costly and payback time is uncertain, with future carbon prices determining whether investments ultimately make sense. For this reason, even large owners are cautious, balancing the pressure to prepare for 2030 and beyond with the risk of backing the wrong technology too soon.

China as a case study

China highlights these dynamics vividly. It is both the world’s largest shipbuilding nation and, by vessel count, the largest ship-owning nation. Its scale gives it an outsized role in shaping global fleet development, while its domestic market adds an additional layer of complexity.

For domestic-trading shipping, the target of carbon neutrality extends to 2060, creating a slower timeline for change. For oceangoing vessels, however, international regulations apply – and that is driving a much faster shift.

In this context, methanol has become the preferred clean fuel for many newbuild projects backed by Chinese state-owned shipowners. The attraction lies not only in compliance but also in alignment with China’s strong focus on renewable energy and energy independence. Methanol can be produced from renewable sources and offers a bridge between today’s conventional fuels and tomorrow’s zero-carbon pathways.

At the same time, the market is keeping a close eye on ammonia. Owners globally, from Asia to Europe, have already placed early orders for ammonia-capable vessels. If these first movers succeed, uptake could be rapid. Yet ammonia presents significant safety and training challenges, underlining the need for careful preparation and proven technology partners.

The pace of innovation

One striking feature of China is the speed of technological development. For every new solution Alfa Laval brings to market – from ballast water treatment, exhaust gas cleaning scrubbers, alternative fuel supply systems, dual fuel boilers, waste heat recovery for power generation, etc. – there are now local competitors. However, most tend to focus on one or two technologies. In areas such as carbon capture, fuel cells and wind-assisted propulsion, local companies are already leading technology development (note that of around 15 providers of sail solutions globally, nearly a third are Chinese).

This rapid innovation creates both opportunities and risks for shipowners. It accelerates the availability of new options but also makes it harder to determine which solutions will stand the test of time. The lesson for owners everywhere is that supplier choice matters. Long-term partnerships, proven reliability and the ability to cover multiple technologies will make the difference when regulations tighten and vessels must operate under pressure.

Alfa Laval’s global value proposition

For Alfa Laval, the lesson from China applies everywhere: breadth, reliability, long-term presence and future-proofing matter. No other supplier matches our portfolio across both conventional and future fuel technologies. Our established product lines provide the financial muscle to keep investing in new solutions, while our strong service network and capability ensure global support.

Our role extends beyond supplying equipment. Customers value Alfa Laval as a trusted consultant and partner in the fuel transition because we can present a full picture of options rather than a single-technology perspective. Whether methanol, ammonia, LNG or biofuels, we are prepared to deliver reliable, economical solutions once owners choose their pathway.

Examples include:

• Fuel Conditioning Modules (FCM) for methanol, ammonia and LNG.
• Fuel-flexible and future-proof Aalborg marine boiler solutions.
• Widest portfolio of heat exchangers for methanol, ammonia, LNG & biofuels.
• E-PowerPack converts waste heat into electricity.

By bringing a portfolio of proven technologies, we save customers valuable time and reduce uncertainty. Instead of managing multiple suppliers, they can rely on Alfa Laval for integrated solutions backed by 24/7 service & support.

Looking ahead

Globally, the next few years will likely see continued caution. LNG is likely to dominate newbuilds in some shipbuilder markets like China and methanol will likely continue to be selected by Chinese state own owners as the preferred alternative fuel, although all eyes will be following the first real-world results from ammonia-capable vessels. Regulatory pressure will grow, fuel availability for green methanol will remain a concern, and carbon pricing will weigh heavily on investment decisions.

What is clear is that no single geography or owner can solve the transition alone. The path to 2050 will be shaped by parallel experiments, local priorities and global regulation. Some fuels will prove more practical than others, and some technologies will rise, or fall based on availability, training and infrastructure.

Alfa Laval’s strength is in being ready for all scenarios. With our strong portfolio, deep engineering experience and enduring service presence, we remain committed to supporting shipowners worldwide as they navigate the uncertainties of the fuel transition.